The article ‘Somaliland Model: A Viable Path for Tigray’s Future’ argues that Tigray should consider a path similar to Somaliland’s de facto statehood due to Ethiopia’s increasing fragmentation and the ineffectiveness of the federal government.
Somaliland, despite lacking international recognition, has maintained stability and functioning institutions through internal consensus, a model Tigray could emulate.
However, the author emphasizes that Tigray must learn from its past failures, particularly the ineffective leadership of the interim administrations and the legacy of centralized, unaccountable governance. A new approach is needed, focusing on:
* Restoring representative legitimacy: Forming an inclusive transitional government with previously elected representatives to prepare for free elections.
* Forging principled alliances: Building partnerships with Ethiopian forces based on shared values like federalism and accountability.
* Establishing equal rule of law: Implementing a legal framework that ensures accountability and prevents abuse.
The author believes Tigray’s future depends on building a new political contract based on legitimacy, democracy, and the consent of its people, rather than trying to reclaim past dominance.
The complete piece is as follows:
Mekelle, Tigray
Somaliland Model: A Viable Path for Tigray’s Future
By Mulugeta Gebregziabher
As Ethiopia descends deeper into fragmentation, with a weakened center struggling to exert coherent authority, Tigray faces a defining strategic moment. Many now describe Ethiopia as a polity marked by ‘dictatorial regime with weak central authority amidst systemic fragmentation,’ where no unified force exists. In such an environment, waiting for a functional federal order may be unrealistic. Tigray should instead pursue a pragmatic path, drawing on Somaliland’s de facto state model, coupled with a robust diplomatic strategy that persuades regional actors to recognize the importance of supporting this course to prevent regional instability and humanitarian catastrophe.
Since 1991, Somaliland has operated as a self-governing entity with functioning institutions, relative stability, and repeated electoral processes, despite lacking international recognition. Its legitimacy derives from internal consensus: a constitution approved by referendum, competitive elections, and a governance model rooted in both local traditions and democratic norms. This combination has enabled it to maintain peace and build state institutions even in a volatile region. Indeed, in recent days Somaliland has received acknowledgment from major global powers following its declaration of independence.
Tigray, emerging from devastating war and political uncertainty, is currently engulfed by internal squabbles among its political elite. There are ongoing debates on the future course including whether declaring independence is an option. In my view, Tigray should adopt principles similar to Somaliland’s, prioritizing internal legitimacy over external validation. However, there must be lessons drawn from the past three years.
The leadership of the first and second Tigray Interim Regional Administrations failed to address the key failures of the implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) by the Ethiopian Federal government. Thus, the transformation from the current status-quo to Somaliland-like de-facto statehood cannot be led by the current political elite. Reports from within Tigray points to growing divisions, contested authority, and resistance among communities, particularly around coercive mobilization and governance decisions. These reports also note a long-standing legacy of centralized, party-dominated governance associated with the TPLF, often criticized as rigid and insufficiently accountable.
A new approach is therefore essential, one grounded in democratic legitimacy, pluralism, responsiveness to a population increasingly disillusioned with top-down control, accountability and new generation of leaders. Such renewal coupled with principled alliances with neighboring peoples will deepen political maturity and cohesion that are essential for internal and regional stability.
Tigray needs a new governance framework that:
* Restores representative legitimacy: Reconvene previously elected representatives from each district (Woreda) to form an inclusive transitional government that reflects the people’s last democratic mandate and prepares the ground for free, multiparty elections.
* Forges principled alliances: Build transparent, values-based partnerships with Ethiopian forces opposing the current government, emphasizing federalism, accountability, and peaceful coexistence rather than opportunistic alignment.
* Establishes equal rule of law: Implement an emergency legal framework that applies equally to leaders and citizens, ensuring accountability, preventing abuse and misinformation by media outlets and rebuilding trust during this fragile transition.
Tigray’s future hinges not on reclaiming past dominance, but on building a new political contract, grounded in legitimacy, democracy, and the consent of its people.